Friday, April 25, 2014

Will A Major Hurricane Hit The Caribbean in 2014?

The Colorado Hurricane Gurus Are Wrong 

Yes, one will. 
The Caribbean Blogger is predicting that at least one major hurricane will hit a Caribbean island in the 2014.  CB cannot predict which island but hoping that it’s not going to be Trinidad; it could be.
How could CB make such a outlandish prediction in the face of credentialed gurus? 

They predict that 2014 hurricane season will be “a very quiet”.  CB says it's too broad a prediction that could lead to complacency and the lack of preparation.

They  made the prediction in USA Today.  In the same article there is evidence to support CB prediction of a high potential of a hurricane.  The prediction that it will be a Caribbean islands is where CB went out on a limb.  Mind you the predictions were made by a team of metro logicians at Colorado State University.  Using logic they developed conclusions.  

The predictions rely primarily on the data that say that El Nino has been cooling in the last few months and will continue to cool.  The last few months they are talking about are the winter months that would normally cool the waters.  That data did not take into consideration global warming and its effects on El Nino. As such, it is not a very reliable predictor of future temperature. 

Statistical analysis by USA Today came up with the following conclusions

“The Colorado State team's seasonal forecasts are a mixed bag: Since 2000, the team has forecast fewer than the actual number of hurricanes four times, forecast more five times and been almost right — within two hurricanes — five times, a USA TODAY analysis shows"

Means that they have been wrong before.
Fact is that these meteorological academia projects are funded by a number of industries that rely on these predictions to evaluate potential losses and actuarial on the level of risk to expect.  It justifies higher premiums for insurance companies.  Billions of dollars are generated insuring transatlantic shipments of goods.  

The chances of the CB prediction being wrong are about the same as the meteorological guru’s claim of a quiet hurricane season.   After reading that article you may come to the same conclusion as CB the chances that a Caribbean island will be hit by a hurricane is “highly likely” in the 2014 hurricane season.

What do you think?

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